Quantitative Modeling in Disaster Management: A Literature Review

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Proceedings of the …

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European Journal of Operational Research

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Disaster Management has received a lot of attention over the last twenty years, and can now be considered a full research area. But a gap exists between research work proposals and their applications on the field. This is particularly true regarding quantitative approaches. One of the main issues is that the scenarios used to design and validate the proposals are often not accurate and/or too simple compared to the complexity of real situations. Designing realistic scenarios is of prime importance to be able to propose relevant quantitative models which could be implemented by practitioners. This paper tackles this problem by proposing a structured methodology which aims at defining realistic disaster scenarios. The case of earthquakes management in Peru is used to illustrate the consistency of our proposal.

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The increasing damage caused by disasters is a major challenge for disaster management authorities, especially in instances where simultaneous disasters affect different geographical areas. The uncertainty and chaotic conditions caused by these situations combined with the inherent complexity of collaboration between multiple stakeholders complicates delivering support for disaster victims. Decisions related to facility location, procurement, stock prepositioning and relief distribution are essential to ensure the provision of relief for these victims. There is a need to provide analytical models that can support integrated decision-making in settings with uncertainty caused by simultaneous disasters. However, there are no formulations tackling these decisions combining multiple suppliers, multiple agencies, and simultaneous disasters. This article introduces a novel bi-objective two-stage stochastic formulation for disaster preparedness and immediate response considering the intera.

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Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies

Improved disaster preparedness can help save life, reduce the suffering of survivors, and enable communities to restart normal life more quickly. Vulnerability of road network is a crucial issue in planning of disaster response operations as it strongly impacts the response time. It is important for planners to take into account the possibility of road network disruption due to disaster as well as its recovery. This paper, therefore, proposes a model to evaluate and improve disaster response plans, considering impact of the possible degradation of road network due to disaster and its possible day-to-day recovery. The empirical data from the aftermath of the previous earthquakes is utilized. The model is applied to analyze and evaluate the Aichi prefecture’s current plan of the first week to response to the most likely Tokai-Tonankai earthquake disaster. Countermeasures to improve the current operation plans are also discussed in this paper.

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